THE HEDGEHOG TRADER'S BLOG                                                            "The Fox has many tricks. The Hedgehog has but one.   But that is the best of all."-- Archilochus.                            Our main contact email address remains:  wintonresearch @ yahoo . com (remove spaces).    Important Notes:   1) NEW! June 22nd:  Hedgehog Trader Newsletter (HHT) sent out a sell recommendation for Excellon Resources and El Dorado Gold Corp (EGO).  Next full issue will be out later this week, post-Fed dip. 2) NEW! June 22nd:  Hedgehog Special Ops! (HSO) sent out an Update; June 16th, HSO sent out a solar recommendation. 3) NEW! June 23rd:  Hedgehog High Roller! sent out an Update. July 4:  Happy 4th of July, readers.  Blessings to all of you and your families.  Best wishes also go out to war veterans and their families, all of whom have made incredible sacrifices for our rights and freedoms. Let's hope our elected politicians will respect those freedoms. Today is also a good day to reflect on what is important in our lives.  Not 'things' or 'money' both of which can be made to disappear and reappear, but 'people', that single most important 'asset' in our lives.  If you have a partner you love and trust, your own children, a beloved family member you can count on, or even a best friend -- you own the world. Important:  The Alphas are picking up a very big move for gold and metal stocks on Monday.  If it's a rise (and metal stocks are heavily oversold, so it's a possibility), it's likely to be a short-term top for the gold price.  And we'll likely see gold moving again after mid-month (at which time, we might see a correction). We'll be putting a lot of resource charts in our next HHT, which I hope to have out this weekend.  We'll look at gold, gold stocks and oil and ratios they share.  And what they might tell us about the future. We'll also include a watch-list of some new metal stocks we want to add. July 3rd:  We got another $5 jump in gold yesterday (maybe not the forecast 'scorcher' as it turned out, but it was a healthy jump).  The only problem was traders were ringing the register on metal stocks ahead of the upcoming holiday and then the following day (today) gold tumbled back to $930s, with everyone contemplating enjoying a nice cool one on Friday.   July 1st:    GOLD'S VENGEANCE - AND MORE TO COME?!   Evening Update:  According to Alpha II, there is a very good chance we could see a scorching rise for gold tomorrow!  We'll have to wait and see how the gold market opens.  But I will say that July 2nd has shown major energy on my last two Alpha Forecasts, completed a few weeks apart.  So we should have a huge move tomorrow.  We'll likely see 3-5 days more in this rally and then a sharp pullback next week.       HAPPY CANADA DAY!     June 30:   Evening Update:  We have had some delays completing our latest Alpha forecasts for HHT #19, but we hope to have our next issue out within the next couple of days.  But suffice it to say, a break back above 450 on the HUI would be very bullish for metal stocks.  If we stay below that point, we'll see some consolidation after that big run-up. We could see a dip after a sharp rise in gold and metal stocks last week.  The HUI Gold Bugs Index provides resistance at 450, so that level will be the next obstacle that metal stocks will have to break through.  Canadian Markets are closed on July 1st - CANADA DAY. June 27:  We'll finish digesting all the action of the last few days and then put out our next HHT Newsletter this weekend or Monday.  We'll post here on our blog when it's been sent. June 26:  Well, we did see a major drop ahead of the Fed non-move (as it turned out) and THEN a humungous rally today in gold and metal stocks.  Perhaps, there is no better description of the metal market than our last HHT Newsletter issue title: "Gold's Magical Mystery Tour Continues..."   The HUI has climbed 16 points or 4%, in spite of weakness in the broad market.  Today is the kind of day when you want to have a core position in metal stocks (as I mentioned on my blog on the 23rd and frequently in my newsletters).  Gold, silver and metal stocks are the type of things that when you're most frustrated they shoots up and when you are way eager, they correct.   It remains to be seen when metal stocks can fully buck the weakness in the broad markets and diverge, but it is clear that buying metal stocks on the dips works. June 24:   Even if we get a Fed-related dip, I think we'll see the price of gold and silver rise into the end of the week.  Metal stocks aren't doing too much leading today.  Yesterday where the HUI was up strongly and gold was weak, gold is up today nearly 1% and the HUI is up 0.5%. June 23:   GOLD STOCKS OUTPERFORM GOLD ... FINALLY! Evening Update:  Based on the fact gold dropped $20 or 2% this morning and the HUI responded by rising strongly through the afternoon, we could be seeing the start a metal stock upturn.  For metal stocks usually rise ahead of the price of gold.  However, we'll need to see more follow-through to confirm a sustained rally is ahead of us.  After all, the Fed makes stocks trade in crazy ways (expect more volatility this week). The best policy is to have a core position invested in physical metals and in quality resource stocks through the all ups and downs ... after all, gold's trend is up since 2001. Every dip along the way has just been a lot of noise on its long-term growth chart.  And since it hasn't gone straight up every quarter or every month, it's shaken a lot of investors off its tail over that span. After completing some more Alpha Research, I think we'll see a correction near the end of July that will be a great buying opportunity. If gold pulls back further tomorrow, I think it may start to turn upward on Wednesday.  If so, that may all lead resource stocks higher. Hedgehog High Roller! sent out an Update. It looks like the gold correction arrived a day earlier than we expected.  We'll be watching metal stocks for direction over the next few days, as they'll likely rise and give us the heads up before gold does.  This dip changes nothing, as we're still expecting higher prices for resource stocks this summer. When the Fed meets, there is almost always initially a great amount of volatility both to the upside and downside. June 22:  For traders, I think there's an 80% or greater chance of a big pullback in resource stocks, big and small, on June 24th, and perhaps 25th ... before a recovery toward the end of the week. Hedgehog Special Ops!  sent out our June update (including a sneek peek at our next Alternative Energy play) and The Hedgehog Trader Newsletter sent out a sell alert on Excellon Resources and El Dorado Gold (the rising price of gold today will likely help our exit).  If you did not receive a copy, please email us and we'll send it on to you. Our High Roller Update! will be delayed until around mid-day on June 23rd. June 20:  Our Alpha Signals are picking up a big move for gold and metal stocks on  Monday.  At this point, I think it will be a rise.  But I think we could then see a Fed-related dip on Tuesday. Hedgehog Special Ops! and Hedgehog High Roller updates will be emailed this weekend.  And Hedgehog Trader Newsletter #19 will likely be out middle of next week, as we are waiting to make a couple of exploration stock purchases on a mid-week dip. Note:  All orders placed this week will be processed this weekend. June 19:  Updated! NEW ENERGY!  These days Hedgehog Special Ops!  our unique opportunity advisory is focusing on energy companies.  A few days ago, just as we promised, we recommended a profitable solar energy company that we forecast to shoot up (see our May 25th blog entry).  In fact, my Hedgehog Fund loaded up with nearly 15% of this stock.  And it jumped mere days later!  Next up, another NEW ENERGY company that Alpha I and II forecast shooting way up in the next month or two (definitely in August!), and will be another great energy buy and hold for the long-term!  With its low price and US listing, this next energy play offers 3 times the leverage ... Morning Comment: That strong move in GOLD and SILVER looks like it was delayed until early this morning!  Finally.  I think we could get an even more powerful move in gold and silver tomorrow.  Next week is likely to be very volatile for metals, with the Fed meeting. June 18:   Must Read for Silver Investors!  With the entire market looking snoozy, I present to you a very interesting article on silver, the the silver ETF (SLV) and implications for a silver explosion in the future, by silver expert Ted Butler who has been long silver since at least $4-5: http://www.investmentrarities.com/06-16-08.html So far, it's been a frustrating day as gold and silver are up strongly overnight, but the DOW/S&P are dragging all stocks down.  Metal stocks are stuck in neutral. I believe metal stocks will move strongly one way or another by the end of the day.  Despite this, keep sight of the big picture:  once the Fed has used up all of its bullets, gold, which has averaged 30% gains each of the last three years, will be heading back to $1000, silver will be headed to $30 and so long as you own the top-quality metal shares we've recommended, your positions will advance strongly when the tide returns. June 17:   Evening update:  Our Alpha Indicators are picking up a large magnitude move tomorrow.  That means whichever way gold and silver tilt overnight will have a huge influence on metal stocks tomorrow and the next day at least. If silver and gold can add to their gains overnight, we could see a big up-move in metal stocks, but if, for example, silver slips under the psychologically important $17 level, we could see selling by traders and another correction.  Yesterday was odd, as metal prices rose but metal stocks relinquished them by the end of the day.  That behaviour can often be tip-off that there is further weakness to come for gold and metal stocks - since metal stocks usually lead the price of gold both on the way up and down. At this point, it's clear gold and silver are still in consolidation mode, not rally mode.   We're likely to see spurts higher and lower over the next few weeks, at least until we can see an obvious bottom put in - wherein we see metal prices make a final drop and on the same day, see metal stocks rise strongly against the tide.  Worst case, I think the HUI could pull back to 390 (with an outside shot at 370 which provides major trend-line support).  And metal stocks remain at extreme oversold levels, trading at levels last seen in September 2007.  Part of this is that the Fed wants to orchestrate a slowed rise of gold and more importantly, a slow crash of the dollar, so every couple of years they let the greenback fall 15-20% and then talk it up 5-10% and then repeat - my theory is they think people will panic less on a more slowly engineered crash.  They also want to give the impression that gold is not soaring out of control - for gold is the canary in the coal mine.  And its rise from $250 to $880 indicates something is rotten in the world economy (or in the state of Denmark, if you've ever read Shakespeare). Gold and Silver Investor Thoughts When all is said and done physical gold and silver are safe assets - they won't ever go to zero (at least they haven't in the last 3,000+ years).  Now, metal stocks offer ways to leverage these prices.  The cost is some added risk, and greater price volatility.   Gold and silver's fundamentals remain strong (and their long-term up-trend remains in place), and we're seeing a pause after a major rise that ended in March and seasonal consolidation that we usually see in May and June.  As I always say, if you're losing sleep over a position, it is likely too large for comfort - and you may want to pare down its size.  We recommend a large core position in gold and silver (or ETFs) and no more than 5% of your precious metals portfolio in each metal stock position, unless you are willing to be more aggressive and by that, I mean, having the patience and mentality to ride out the bumps along the way (be honest with yourself and you'll be a happier investor and/or trader).  Also worth noting is that sometimes prices of gold and silver outperform metal stocks (like over the past year), and other times it's just the opposite, and that is why we recommend holding a mix of both stocks and physical metals. June 16:  This afternoon, Hedgehog Special Ops!  just sent out a solar energy buy recommendation. June 12:   HHT's lower-priced recs from our June 5th issue have held firm despite's gold's drop and have in fact, risen, while the larger cap metal producers have pulled back. This adds further credence to the fact exploration stocks are outperforming the market and should continue through the summer!  (Not to worry, the big caps will get moving and hit a new peak for profit taking, by mid-July!)  Join Hedgehog High Roller! our microcap advisory to capture giant profits!  One of our two most recent picks, codenamed TNT Energy, shot up 30% its first day! Updated (seasonal gold chart included below):  Gold has a way of pulling back sharply and testing lower supports before rising and it looks like it will do just that.  The same goes for the HUI Gold Bugs index which tracks larger gold stocks (you can see quick, sharp HUI declines that saw equally sharp rebounds in in August, January, February, March and April).  In the HUI, we're seeing a convergence of support and resistance that will be resolved soon.   430 is a major resistance point (the down-sloping blue line at the top of the chart has marked lower highs in the consolidation since March) and major support lies at 375 and 400.   The HUI is also very oversold and is due for a strong rally. In addition, the HUI:GLD ratio which measures how oversold gold stocks are to the price of gold is now the 4th most over-sold all year with only August, March and May seeing more selling (actually, this morning we've tied for third).  Such extreme readings  (4.40-4.70) have occurred before snapping back strongly.   Seasonal Gold Chart:  Any weakness is temporary and is associated from historical pauses that have occurred in June.  I fully expect gold and metal stocks to blast ahead in the weeks before us!  It now looks like gold is acting exactly as the seasonal gold chart says it has acted in the past, making a dip before building up for a run through July.  There is often some variation (note red dotted lines), but this year looks to be following the chart to a tee: June 11: Afternoon Update:  What's interesting is that the smaller more speculative metal stocks are doing very well today, while the big caps are not (facing a downdraft from the broad market weakness).  Including one junior we're holding in HHT that is absolutely tearing it up, having risen nearly 100% in two days!  Explorers look to be the top performers at this present time.  A few days ago on our blog, we showed you that this was likely to occur (see June 6th chart of Juniors vs larger metal stocks). Morning Comment: Today's open for gold looks much better (although, it now looks like the broad market tumbling is providing a frustrating headwind for metal stocks).  And it now looks like the 407 point mark on the HUI was a launching pad for this rally, as it has supported gold's previous pullbacks.  Also, for reference, gold prices are now trading at their lowest vs crude oil since the summer of 2005.  At that point, gold then rose over 30% and oil underperformed.  What we can deduce from this, is that oil is approaching overvalued status and gold is definitely trading in the undervalued range.  At some point the oil barons will take profits and put them into the more undervalued asset, gold, and drive its valuation higher.  And as you can see, cycles of gold being stronger than oil and oil being stronger than gold have switched places several times.   Oil Versus Gold Valuation Chart: June 10:  Late Afternoon Update: It turns out Helicopter Ben Bernanke has been talking up the dollar (he now recognizes inflation!) and that has put pressure on metal prices.  Also, the Bank of Canada, also cautious on inflation, is staying firm on interest rates.  And that has also provided gold weakness.  The HUI now looks like it could re-test the 407 level which it shot up from recently.  The HUI held 407 at the close, an event which is constructive, though further supports are 390 and 400).  What would be bullish is to see gold fall tomorrow, while metal stocks start to rise, as that is a bullish reversal sign. Despite the harsh pullback this week, all of our new metal recommendations are quality resource stocks that will survive the ebbs and flows of the metal markets.  I think we'll see a charge upward for gold Thursday and likely another strong rise on Monday.  Short-term traders may see an opportunity to exit positions after a rise early next week and wait for another pullback, which I think may be a strong one near the middle of next week.  In the current picture, gold is continuing to consolidate and lick its wounds after its pullback from $1000 and as a consequence metal stocks remain in a trading range, while financial figures attempt to temporarily divert its course by propping up the dollar.  Long-term, paper cash is indeed trash (due to an overheated US dollar printing press, inflation and more) and as a consequence, gold and silver will be indispensible.  Patience is your strongest ally.  Watching powerful people bail out Bear Stearns with public money, while homeowners suffer foreclosures wholesale, is probably not a good omen for the US economy or dollar. Morning comments:  Overnight we saw a gold spike to nearly $890, but gold has since retreated in the last few hours.  It looks like some short-term manipulation.  I'm still expecting a move higher as the week progresses.  It would be very bullish if the HUI Gold Bugs Index can reverse and closes above its 200 day moving average at 424:  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24hui   June 9:  If all goes according to our Alpha forecast (and we saw the dip we expected today), the Gold elevator should be going up later today and tomorrow ... June 8:  Our next Hedgehog High Roller and Hedgehog Special Ops! Updates will be out this week.  Well post here when they've been sent.   June 7:   It was a great week for metal investors, one that was topped off by a massive $24 an ounce rise in the price of gold!  Good for standing your ground - and standing by your tangible assets.  Even a few resource bulls put forth a great contrarian signal i.e. Dennis Gartman gave his big SELL GOLD (and Short Oil ... !) recommendation right before the yellow metal shot up from $870 last week.  (Of course, there was also Porter Stansberry who told all of his ilk to sell gold last August when it dropped to $640 (Doh!) or even the wily Warren Buffett who didn't understand silver was REAL MONEY and sold his vast horde of silver holdings (130 million ounces worth!) in 2006 (that SALE is going to look really depressing in about 2 or 3 years!), or TV pitchman Jim Cramer who hated gold at $420 ("What inflation?", he said.  Tee hee!)  I am now more inclined to think we'll see a sharp but brief resource dip early next week (perhaps, just Monday), that investors can use to add some of our recent resource recommendations.   June 6: Our forecast of a major gold rise today in HHT #18 was very satisfying!  Our new recommendations should pay off nicely over the next couple of months. Also, Hedgehog High Roller, our microcap advisory, sent out our two latest and greatest microcap recommendations this morning (see below). Hedgehog Special Ops! our unique opportunities newsletter, will soon be sending out a recommendation of what I think will be one of the best performing silver stocks over the next 2 months.  The company is profitable, trades at $4 per share and should zoooom! once earnings are out! June 5:  Big Tiny II?  Hell, Yeah! Hedgehog High Roller! our microcap service, will soon be sending out two FIERY HOT COMMODITY recommendations!   MICROCAPS ON THE VENTURE EXCHANGE ARE TURNING RED HOT! #1: The first company is very intriguing, and one I just discovered last week with the help of Alpha II and III, both of which are very bullish:  It's a TINY exploration stock exploring an area where Goldcorp discovered 12.5 million of ounces of gold, where Placer Dome has unearthed 13 million ounces of gold! They've also made some gigantic VMS discoveries on another property. And amazingly, this tiny gem has a $19 million market cap and only trades at 14 cents!  Recently, huge trading volumes have appeared as institutions position themselves in the stock ahead of some major discoveries.  (Oddly enough, 15 cents is the price I recommended our very first VMS explorer "Big Tiny!" and it hit $1.70 within a year!)     I thought I'd found "Big Tiny, II" a few months ago ... but I'm glad I passed on that opportunity, as this one looks much, much better! #2: High Roller's second pick, may hold even more potential.  It's a TINY 20-cent coal exploration company with a uranium kick!  Hold on tight, the Alphas forecast an energy blast!  Oil is going up, coal is going up, gold is going up ... and so are these microcaps.  Leverage the METAL and ENERGY BULL MARKETS to the MAX, and join High Roller today! June 4:  Hedgehog Trader Newsletter #18 has been emailed.  (Please let us know if you didn't receive it and we'll send it on post-haste!) June 3:  We're now starting to see some of the gold weakness we've been waiting for, and HHT #18 will be out later tomorrow with some new recommendations.  We'll post on our blog when the issue has been sent. May 31:  I've just completed a major round of Alpha research (having scanned through about 50-60 companies in the last month) and I've uncovered some wonderful stocks to buy and hold in the months ahead.  I'll soon release some bold resource recommendations for all three of our services:   Hedgehog Trader Newsletter, Hedgehog Special Ops!, including our microcap newsletter, Hedgehog High Roller! Note:  Orders received last week will be processed later this weekend. May 30:  We're forecasting a big drop for metal stocks early next week, chiefly June 4th, and during the weakness (at long last!) we'll be rolling out new resource stock recommendations.  So be prepared to hold your nose and buy! :) May 29:  In June, our microcap trading service Hedgehog High Roller! will be recommending a 25 cent uranium stock and a really tiny 13 cent company with an exciting VMS exploration program, both of which we think could see interesting things happen next month. Morning Commentary:  I'm not sure why, but something triggered more selling in the metals market.  Silver hit $17 and gold is trading under $880.  The HUI has dipped under 420 support.  Next support is 410.  This extreme pullback is setting us up for a rally next month.  When fear is in the air, it's a great time to add metal ETFs and physical metals to long-term holdings. May 28:  Gold had a tiny bit of funk left this morning bottoming at $980, but it's reversed strongly off its lows.  The HUI has also reversed off its lows and pushed up from its 420 support level.  I think we'll see metals and shares move higher until the end of the week.  After a correction early next week, we'll jump in with both feet ... Still, today is a good day to buy metal ETFs. May 27:  We're glad to have predicted that drop - it was a doozy!  As the Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy often recommends:  "Don't panic."  For I think we'll see metal stocks and metal prices rise tomorrow, though not close at their highs.  By the end of Friday we should see a big rise in gold completed! However, next week at least early on, Alpha II indicates we'll see another gold and metal stock pullback which will be more favourable to opening new metal stock positions, as the metal stock prices may be slightly lower then (but perhaps not the actual metal prices).   All of the ups and downs at this point are just noise - gold and silver are heading much higher.  There are more and more shortages being reported among silver dealers (insist on taking physical delivery or you may get left holding a piece of paper!), and even more intriguing, is that the US is now limiting the purchase of silver eagle coins.  Hah!  What else?  We're also starting to see major mining companies taking stakes in small exploration companies.  Will full buyouts be next?  Can you smell the blood?  We metal bulls sure can ... May 25:                             Supernova Cometh!                                Energy prices stink for consumers, and they won't get much better.  That's why in mid-June, Hedgehog Special Ops! will be going HOT and recommending my number one US Solar Energy play, a profitable solar energy company that will soon occupy 15% of my Hedgehog Fund.  Both my Alpha I and Alpha II signals indicate this will be a great buying opportunity, as shares should rocket in the months to come. We will be putting out HHT #18 later this week, possibly with a couple of new recommendations if we see a dip (and I think we might Tuesday or Wednesday). PS.  Happy Memorial Weekend!  God bless the soldiers and veterans who've served Canada and the US so bravely!   May 23:  We got the metal rally we forecasted, but the metal stocks were put under pressure by the broad market's drop.  It's looking more and more like it might be best to wait 'til June to enter our new positions in metal stocks (I nearly sent out some new recommendations yesterday but changed my mind when I considered the broad market's weakness).  If the HUI can close above 440 support today (441 now), we could see another rally next week.  Of course, metal stocks lead the metal, so if we see continued weakness in metal stocks, gold could soon follow them down.   May 22:  A real scorcher of a pullback, right on cue!  I think we're going to see gold and metal stocks rally later this afternoon, through tomorrow.   May 21:  HUI has just poked through resistance at 450 and metals are higher after an early morning drop.  Metal stocks are overbought, but could still rise a bit.  We are still likely to see a pullback tomorrow and perhaps, Friday.   We could then see a resumption of the rally until late next week. But we're picking up a great buying opportunity in early June, if we remain patient. Update:  With metal stocks behaving more strongly today, there is one scenario I had discounted earlier and that would be that we see a rise for metal until the end of the week, followed by an early drop next week, spike up after that, and pull back at the end of next week.  Metal stocks continuing to move higher in overbought conditions would make metal stocks overbought enough that it would produce a big correction by the end of the first week of June that we're expecting.   The 460 and 480 mark on the HUI are the next resistance points, with the latter being pretty strong. May 20:  Even though metal prices have moved up strongly, metal stocks have not moved up strongly.  Some are even negative.  And that often suggests we're near the start of at least a mini-correction.  That's confirmed by my Alpha I indicator, that we should see some weakness on the 21st and 22nd of May.  Metal stocks will give us a few good buying opportunities in the near-term ... Update:  Metal stocks have picked up somewhat since the weak open, but the HUI is nearing major resistance at 350, less than 1.5% higher than we are now.   May 18:  It was an excellent day for gold on Friday and gold has pretty much hit the $850 bottom we forecast and turned higher!  The next big metal stock dip may actually come a bit later next week than I originally thought - I'm still working on my weekly forecast to try to nail it down.  The good news is that I've been working on a whole bunch of company forecasts the last few weeks and I have some fantastic new picks on the way!  I just want to complete some final forecasts before I put out the next HHT in the next 1-3 days. May 15:  With today's gold and silver rise, we've seen the lows of the week, but while we should see more strength today and tomorrow, we may see another metal dip early next week.  We'll put out our next HHT Newsletter next week. May 14:  Gold continues to bounce around and consequently, gold stocks have not given a fresh buy signal, yet.  We have the potential for a gold dip tomorrow, but we'll have to wait and see. May 12:  Our Microcap trading service, Hedgehog High Roller will be sending out our first explosive Uranium pick (codenamed TNT Uranium!) that we're looking at for a triple over the next year! Small, speculative stocks were out of favour last year, but now that sentiment has reached bearish proportions and no one want to look at them, they will surprise all but a few (ie you!) and SURGE this year as metal prices hit new highs!  In fact, I think they will greatly outperform larger producing metal companies, as investor sentiment gets more bullish (greedy).  Both Alpha I and II indicate a rise over the next few months and  a massive upside surge in the Fall for our next pick, codenamed TNT Uranium, trading at a fraction of its true value.  Don't miss out!  Join High Roller today! May 11:  Hedgehog Special Ops! (HSO) sent out a Profit Alert this evening.  (Email us if you did not receive it.)   Market comment:   While we are likely to encounter metal price spikes and dips (perhaps, some of them unexpected), having the patience in waiting for the resource market to bottom over the next couple of weeks will pay off in spades over the next 3-4 months!   May 9:   During this mornings metal correction, the strongest shares are indeed the small exploration companies, which I noted had started to outperform the larger producers.  This bodes very well for them over the Spring and Summer! Updated! May 8:  We're seeing the rally we expected in gold and precious metals, but I still think we could see a sharp pull-back early next week.  My Alpha Signals are picking up a big move in metal prices that's likely to begin on Monday and last a day or two.  Being cautious, I think it might be a move to the downside. If so, it will bring metal prices closer to a bottom.   Addendum: Whatever the case, metal stocks will not take off without a slight re-test, however.  Our Alpha Signals have also identified a dip and a buying opportunity for metal stocks, likely around late May or the first week of July. May 6:  I've been looking at some charts and forecasts and the Canadian Venture Exchange Index (CDNX) which holds the smallest most speculative resource stocks, has shown signs of outperforming the larger producers in the HUI Gold Bugs index over the last few weeks (after being beaten up for no good reason, other than basic risk aversion, over the last 6-8 months).  If this trend continues, we should start to see the resource juniors spark up over the next few months.  The juniors, are of course, undervalued to a quite silly degree right now, as many of them have incredibly rich metal assets in the ground, about to enter production or have just begun to produce. As such, they should be bought and tucked away until the day we hit the metal mania which turns fear into outright greed!   Updated at Noon:  We're looking at the possibility that we'll see one last steep pull-back for gold and silver next week and a steep drop for metal stocks, particularly early next week, so we will likely put out our next HHT issue and therefore our next recommendations mid-to-late next week.  So, short-term traders who bought on their own recently, might want to cash in before this weekend in case we're right. Regarding this week, I think we might see a pullback in metal stocks beginning in the next day or so, though if that happens we should see a rebound at the end of the week.  Monday is the day I think we could see a big metal and metal stock drop that will bring us a closer to the end of this seasonal correction. All of what is occurring now is a natural bottoming process for metals and metal stocks, and occurs regularly around this time of year (based on historical and seasonal trends). May 2:  Afternoon update: The broad market tanked this afternoon, pulling down metal stocks that rallied most of today. It's annoying to see metal stocks still connected to the broad markets (after all metal stocks often have millions of dollars of gold and silver being produced, or in the ground, in the case of metal explorers), but that only reveals the negative market sentiment among metal traders. (This is actually bullish as it means the metal doubters will be surprised over the next few months by gold's strength and resurrection.) Morning Comment: With gold's sharp reversal of the premarket dip to $845 gold, and with this morning's HUI strength, I think we'll get a metal stock rally at least until 1:30-2:00 pm today.  My Alpha Indicators suggest we'll see a rise at the end of next week.   Now, early next week my Alpha indicators suggest we'll see a very big move in metal stocks. The pre-market gold prices on Monday will likely determine whether that's up or down.  Another positive was that many stocks bounced off their 200 day moving averages yesterday - their major support lines. May 1:  Okay, Get Down Off the Window Ledge ... We've seen a metal correction almost as strong as the one we saw in August (the gold vs HUI ratio was stretched almost as deeply).  For those who were here during the dip, spawned by the credit crisis, the August pullback was vicious (sending many stocks down 30-40%) and its force turned bulls bearish (those who were fed up and threw in the towel ... soon saw shares rise and leave them in the dust!) and all of that negativity allowed gold to regenerate its strength and rise another $300 per ounce! We should see another strong rebound on to new gold and silver highs over the next few months! In my opinion, various gold, silver and metal stocks will bottom over the next 3-4 weeks (re-testing their supports, before moving higher).  And in fact, we might make a few opportune additions to the HHT Newsletter portfolio over the next 7-10 days.  Especially, if we see a dip in shares sometime next week.   Metal stocks tend to rise 1-3 days ahead of the physical metal, so if we are to see gold make a final drop to $850 (it hit 860s today before rising post-Fed cut) then gold stocks might move up ahead of that dip. Again, we might not see gold and metal stocks make a completely vertical rise over the next 4-6 weeks, but more likely some rises and then re-tests of previous support levels, before moving higher.   Even long-time gold bulls (such as Brien Lundin) are resigned to the fact that gold will move sideways for a number of months*  ... but in my opinion, they are wrong!  My Alpha Indicators and Sean David Morton (who forecasts $1,200 gold before year end) all suggest that this is just the seasonal gold dip I've been forecasting, before a powerful new rally ensues.  Take note, as July and August should be very interesting for gold, silver and metal shares! *(when those who are normally positive become negative, that's usually a good contrarian indicator) The US dollar may have a temporary rise left in it, but it doesn't change the fact that its value continues to drop, as it continues to be diluted by the misfit Fed Bernanker-Bankers.  If you travel, you'll have noticed that buying anything takes a lot more US moolah than it ever did.  Expect that trend to continue.   Nota Bene: Only gold and silver are real money.  (In fact, silver may soon back a North American currency.) They have tripled and quadrupled since 2001.   Over the same period, the dollar has nose-dived 50% or more.   Paper or fiat money ALWAYS gets chewed up into nothing by greedy, mindless, self-serving politicians.  Oddly enough, over the last 3,000 years gold and silver have somehow avoided disappearing into nothing. Do you think perhaps, this trend might continue for another 10? In any event, ROLL UP and place your bets!  Apr 28:  With the Fed poised to cut rates and metal stocks deeply oversold (the HUI to gold ratio at multi-month extremes, where one normally sees a big rise), we are likely to see a relief rally emerge at some point this week (perhaps, after the Fed decision) and depending on its strength, it could extend into next week.   Apr 24:  Updated: Gold got hit again last night and it looked like an easy thing to do with the general market looking so weak.  Meanwhile, the HUI or gold stock index has pulled back all the way down to and a bit below its major support, its 200 day moving average, at 411.  Many metal stocks are trading near their 50 and 200 day moving averages.  In the very short-term, it would be constructive to see them rise into the close today.  In the bigger picture, our downside target for gold on this correction is $850, so we're not too far off. I thought we were going to get there in just a few trading sessions in May, but it looks like it might be a more gradual decline from this point on.  We expect gold to resume its climb to $1000 and higher once its rise after this seasonal correction is over, and the beginning of this new rise will likely occur by the end of May.  The low-priced junior exploration stocks on the TSX Venture Exchange are already beaten up enough, that on the next rally I would likely only raise cash/take profits on the US listed stocks that have seen upside the last few months. And we can just sit back and wait for gold to hit our $850 target before redeploying capital into new positions. Apr 23:  Manipulators ratcheted gold down overnight - many blame the drop in crude oil and the dollar (which gold does not always have a fixed relationship with).  Regardless of the cause, Gold dropped to major support at $900 and has turned upward, so from a technical point of view think we're heading higher from here.  If we do turn higher, buying battered shares of Silver Wheaton (SLW) might work out as a good two day trade. As always, keep a stop of your own choosing in place and stay diversified. Apr 22:  Three Free blog trades!  Allied Nevada Gold (ANV) $5.36, Minefinders (MFN) $11.91 and Midway Gold (MDW) $2.28 look like interesting very short-term trades (perhaps, take profits before end of close Friday). I think gold and silver are going to start rising tomorrow and are likely to jump up on Thursday. Apr 20:  Hedgehog Trader #17 has been emailed.  Hedgehog Special Ops! April update has been emailed.  If you did not receive your issue, please let us know and we'll send you another copy. Apr 19:  I'm completing some new forecasts this weekend before I send out our next HHT and HSO updates. Apr 18:  Oil and some manipulations caused a big pullback in gold this morning.  However, we'll still expecting a rise by mid-week next week. Apr 16:  Our gold price surge came a day earlier than expected (there was a chance for one last gold price dip today, but oil's continuing inflationary rise to new highs nixed that possibility).  And as I mentioned the metal stocks were already moving strongly yesterday so we knew this gold spike was coming. Apr 15:  Gold is likely to bottom for the week by the end of tomorrow.  Metal stocks may rise beforehand. A few already are.  I expect a strong end to the week for metals and metal stocks. Apr 14:  Hedgehog High Roller! has emailed out our latest update with a new gold/silver micro-cap play. HHT #17 will be out in the next day or so, as will our next Special Ops! updates. We'll post here when each publication has been emailed.  Apr 11:  Metal prices continue to be volatile but I think we'll see a mid-day rise.  That said, short-term traders may want to sell on strength because, as I mentioned a few days ago, I think there is an 80-85% chance of a bigger decline early next week - and a big rise by Thursday and Friday. Apr 10:  While metal stocks spiked this morning, metal price weakness managed to drag prices down.  I still think we're going to get a strong close late this afternoon. Apr 9:  Excellent!  Gold is making its predicted charge toward the end of the week. I'm also wondering if we might see a massive spike in silver tomorrow morning based on some forecasts I've generated (and why not, many stores are literally sold out of their silver) ... though, as I mentioned earlier, short-term traders may want to exit their larger US listed gold and silver positions on Friday and look to buy back lower in the next week. ALSO:  We might be posting a blog trade (that anyone can read about on my blog) on Monday or Tuesday.  Though, before I do, I have to do a final confirmation of my forecast. Apr 8:   Evening Update:  I think we may see gold start to rise tomorrow, likely initiating a rise by noon, and shoot up on the 11th.  I think we might also see a price spike on Thursday late afternoon. Also, I spoke to Sean David Morton today, and I'll have some of his comments on gold (which quite neatly line up with my own), prices and date predictions, to share with you very soon!  It's going to be an exciting summer ... Along with the weak broad market (which is unwinding from its overbought condition), the IMF announcement that they'll consider sellling a large amount of gold this year is temporarily pressuring gold prices this morning.   I've been busily working on some metal and stock forecasts these last few days (and will perhaps continue for another day or so).  But so far, I think we are likely to see a spike up in gold and metal stocks near the end of this week, most likely, on the 11th.  Short-term traders may want to take profits around that time, because early next week (15th-ish) we are projecting a big drop in gold (perhaps, sub $900) which might be gold's low for the next couple of weeks.  After that, in the same week, we'll likely see another rise, and another pullback (which might be a good time to buy back ahead of a powerful end of the month rally).  This final rally just might take gold back to $1,000.   Apr 7:  The afternoon selling pressure we originally anticipated, was even stronger than we imagined.  This is likely because the broad market (S&P, etc) really dropped at 1 pm and its downdraft managed to influence traders to sell out of their metal positions.  Update: I still think we could see a mid-afternoon dip, followed by a very strong end to today's action. Apr 3:  BLOG Updated! *NEW* Very, Very Short-Term Forecast: Monday morning might see a pullback for metals, but I think we're going to see a HUUUGE rally in later in the afternoon (based on my latest forecasts).  Let's see if we're right! PLUS:  'BIG TINY!', PART DEUX Hedgehog High Roller: will shortly send out our next microcap winner, codenamed: Big Tiny, Too!   It's a tiny 30 cent exploration company in central Canada sitting on billions of dollars of copper and nickel and a rich gold property in Ontario!  The last company we recommended in a very similar situation went from 15 cents to $1.70!  I'd be happy to take a fraction of those gains ... Plus Big Tiny, Too! is cushioned by joint ventures with TWO big name mining companies, to boot! Also: Hedgehog Special Ops!:  Our next update will be out in the next few days as we finish up some forecasts and prepare to add some new recommendations. Morning Commentary:  It looks like metal stocks hit an interim bottom on Apr 1st and I think we're going to see another roaring strong day for gold and silver on Friday!   Hedgehog Trader Newsletter sent out a new silver recommendation this morning - a fast-growing silver producer, with 40% inside ownership, that attracted Silver Wheaton's Chairman to their board of Directors! Apr 1:  Afternoon Update: The HUI and XAU bounced off the supports and we may well see metal stocks rally into the close and perhaps into tomorrow.  It's also a good sign to see a lot metal stocks bounce off their 50 day moving averages early this morning, which in the past, has been a great buying opportunity. Morning Comment:  We're seeing the re-test we speculated might come in the last HHT.  Though, it sure came all at once.  Why did gold pull back?  Nothing concrete, but simple fear from speculators.  Fear and greed drives the market.  Metal stock indices:  The XAU is now trading around 170 and the HUI is trading around 420, both major supports.  We're likely to see a major metal stock rise around April 7th or 8th and likely higher prices until the end of the month.  After what may be a pullback in the first couple of weeks of May, gold and silver should rise through July and August - so add the physical metals or ETFs on dips. Mar 28:  Afternoon update:  Alpha I and II are picking up a major move for metals and metal stocks early next week.  Monday during the pre-market we should know if that will be up or down.  But I'm leaning toward gold moving to the upside, as Alpha II has had a number of solid hits on gold's direction this past week and is also forecasting a major gold price rise Monday and Tuesday.  Gold stocks certainly bounced back from gold's drop very quickly this morning (the HUI gold stock index is down 0.6% versus gold which is down 1.6%) and that's an additional bullish sign, as metal stocks tend to move ahead of the price of gold.   However, we'll have to wait see how things play out.   Late Afternoon Update:  We could still see further downside, however, as Gold hasn't recovered as much as I thought it might today.  Gold's price in the pre-market on Monday will tell the tale - a climb or a gain and it will be a big up day and negative and we could see a big pull back. Morning Note:  My webhosting company had a glitch yesterday, so I didn't have the chance to add that I think we could see a major comeback for gold today (now that it's pulled back 18 dollars or so).   Also, my webhosting company is relocating to a new facility this weekend, so our blog may be silenced over the weekend.  :) Mar 27:  I think we might see a gold pullback early Friday.  Note: We'll be sending out our next High Roller and Special Ops!  updates by early next week. Mar 23: Issue #16 has been sent. We may have to delay the next HHT issue until Monday night due to some delays in obtaining some final forecasts (particularly, for some new recommendations I'm looking at). I'll post on our blog to confirm when we've sent out our next issue. Mar 20:  Evening Update:  Alpha I is picking up a big move next week for metals.  I think it's likely to be a rise in gold, silver and metal stocks!  We saw an incredible out-of-nowhere rally in the last 10-15 minutes of trading in many larger cap metal stocks.   Morning Commentary:  The HUI:GOLD ratio hit an extreme reading this morning, one which has marked the bottom in numerous corrections. So, I look for a rebound today.  Gold stocks may retest this level before the end of the month, but April should mark a strong period for metals and metal stocks. Gold rebounded off the (magic round number) $900 level this morning and metal ETFs offer a great 4-6 week trade, since I think we'll take another run at $1000 gold. Note: Friday, the markets are closed.  Note: We'll be completing some research/forecasts and then we'll be putting out our next issue of HHT this weekend, hopefully with a new recommendation or two. Mar 19:  Amazingly, gold did tumble heavily this morning following our forecast on Mar 17th. I can't say why, however.  Only that my Alpha II indicator suggested this path for gold. Today is a great day to buy physical gold, silver or to buy the two metal ETFs in HHT newsletter, as gold is going higher by mid-April.  Metals shares will follow, too.  They just need to shake off the cobwebs from today's drop.  We'll know metal stocks are back on track when metal shares (and the HUI index) lead the price of gold higher. Mar 17:  After gold's big run-up today to $1030, we could see a day or so where gold dips (gold is currently $4 under $1000 an ounce).  If gold moves lower tomorrow, we could see a scenario where gold dips and bottoms on Wednesday. Though, we forecast that gold should march ahead once again into the end of the week and next week.  But expect a lot of volatility in resource shares within 24 hours of the Fed's decision.  For those who ordered it, The Silver Colossus Report will be sent out Wednesday morning.   Mar 15:              "SILVER COLOSSUS!"   "How to Buy an Ounce of Silver ($20.57/oz) for 11 cents." Access this specially-priced $99 Report today!  Click here!  Or email us to purchase with cheque/money orders.                To be true, COLOSSUS is the only word for this Mexican exploration company that has $1 billion in silver (over 40 million ounces) and only trades for $12 million.   VALUATION: ONE share, which costs you a whopping 30 cents, buys you $27 worth of silver! MANAGEMENT: The company's experienced management team includes a former President of [XXXXXX] Gold (a gold producer, bought out last year!) is Chairman of the board.      FACTS! Inflation is here in spades!  (Oil, wheat, sugar, soy beans ... all rising!) The dollar has lost 90% of its purchasing power. The most leveraged metal, silver, has risen an incredible 200% since 2005.   Silver is up 59% this year, so far!   When the price of SILVER doubles again to $40, what will happen to the share price of THE COLOSSUS?  A) Shares drop to 25 cents?  (Ach, who needs silver!) B) Shares rise ten-fold to $3.00 (and remain 1/10th of only their present value.) PROFIT! "In scenario B) a $10,000 investment would net a windfall of $100,000!" Also:  Around the middle of this week (after some Tuesday Federal Reserve volatility), Hedgehog High Roller will be making a long-term recommendation:  a tiny silver hoarder that's managed to get not one but two major silver producing companies to fund their rich silver exploration projects until they reach production.  A no-brainer and a definite moonshot over the next few years!  Special Ops! will be recommending a great long-term silver play, low-priced and low-risk.   Hedgehog Trader Newsletter will be recommending a few new silver plays as well.  Based on my latest forecasts, we may make some of these recommendations on Tuesday or Wednesday. Like Holding A Lit Match! It's surprising but apparently hedge funds are shorting the junior resource stocks and going long the bigger companies - this is temporarily depressing some smaller cap resource stocks.   But this is as smart as holding a lit match!  For commodity prices are racing higher daily, and even weekly - world gold production will soon be in decline - and to replace reserves, big-money buyouts and takeovers will be the order of the day!   It is truly frustrating to watch some juniors languish at 2001 prices, even though gold and silver have doubled and tripled.  But it makes no sense to sell them on fears of an economic meltdown.  If anything, uncertainty will send gold and silver even higher!  I've been looking at a lot of companies this week -- there are some great buys out there and they will be worth an absolute mint in a few short years!  (In contrarian thinking, it is almost always best to buy when people are skeptical or fearful.  People always wait to buy once an asset is rising, sending it higher.  We'll be in the catbird seat when John Q Public finally starts buying exploration companies that his conservative, once commodity-phobic financial advisor recommends.  A truly massive metal stock mania awaits!) One morning the investing public won't be able to ignore the incredible profit made possible by $1200-1500 gold and $25-30 silver, and resource juniors will roll out of bed and smash these dim-wit shorts into oblivion!  Oh yes (ahem!) and on that note, and metal shorts might look to swallow some anesthetic before September/ October ... Mar 14:  We finally hit it ... $1000 an ounce gold!   HHT Newsletter will likely have some new metal recs on Monday!  A few stocks I've waited to buy for a while ... Mar 13:  On March 11th, we were looking for a dip and in fact gold saw a dip to $965 early and then reversed to the upside - the HUI also rebounded off the 470 level .. and of course, yesterday, we learned that the FED's plunge protection team intervened to prevent the markets from plunging by injecting more money into failing institutions.  This surprise intervention had an inflationary effect (more dilution of American assets = higher gold price) and jacked up gold prices double time.  So far today, gold and the broad markets are moving in opposite directions.   Money is fleeing to tangible assets. Mar 9:   This week I'm watching the gold to HUI ratio (essentially, the price of gold divided by the strength of a gold stock average, which tells us whether metal stocks are going to start rising - as metal stocks tend to rise ahead of gold) for signs of a metal stock bottom where stocks might rebound from.   If the ratio holds above the upward sloping support at 5.00 (preferably 5.07) and moves higher early this week, there's a good chance we'll have a sharp rally that takes place for a portion of the next 5-8 days.  Though, Alpha II indicates a possibility of a gold drop on the 11th.  If so, that might drive various indicators (including the VIX) to extreme levels, from which rallies most often develop. One thing is for certain, gold will hit $1000 an ounce (it's too close not to!) and the Alphas indicate it's likely to happen by early April, if not sooner - gold just might scare some recent buyers off this twisty roller-coaster ride first! Twice in the past year metal stocks have pulled back strongly, only to mount an amazing run higher (August and December).  So, gold and silver will often do everything it can to test our patience before they rise! Since I'm convinced the metals are header higher by the end of the month, I really think we're getting a great buying opportunity this week.  Let's see how it all unfolds! Mar 8:  Weekend Thoughts:   Selling was pretty extreme on Friday, so we may see a bounce in resource stocks and even the broad market on Monday.  Ideally, we'd like to see a down opening and a reversal that moves the Volatility Index (or fear index) into the 30s - as that has marked the end of a number of corrections this year.  Basically, a reading in the 30s would show sentiment that is so bearish that it's time to buy.  (The best time to buy is when no one wants to!) Meanwhile, the gold stock index or HUI appears to be consolidating ahead of its next move.  If we do get a pullback, major support levels are 480, 465 and 455.  The blue 50-day moving average line has supported the HUI through most of the last 6 months. And I do think we'll get another Fed cut rate this month that will send gold higher into April.  Last week, we got as close to $1000 as $990 in gold.  Laws of attraction say that gold will definitely surge to $1000 and soon.  In the meantime, buy the dips.  And it looks like HHT Newsletter closed our North American Palladium (PAL) position just in time, as it's now shed 25% in just a couple of weeks.  So, not every good trade is a big gain.  Sometimes a good trade means you get out exit safely ahead of a major correction.   Finally, you can't be right on every trade, so when in doubt - sell.  For there are always great buying opportunities in the market. Another indication we may see a major rise in the HUI on the 17th arrives as my Alpha II signal is forecasting our HHT Newletter new silver recommendation from Issue #15 may zoom up once again on that date.  And the dates Alpha II generated for that stock's biggest rises were March 4th, 17th and 21st.  So far, the 4th was correct.  So, let's see how it plays out from here. Mar 7:  The Fed threw a temporary wrench into gold's rise by indicating they may delay a rate cut.  Meantime, I'm watching the VIX fear index which is spiking and if it breaks into the 30s that might be a bottom for the broad markets.  But gold will continue higher - we're looking for another big rise within a day or two of March 17th. Mar 6:  After completing some new Alpha Research, Hedgehog High Roller has a number of micro-cap (very small) silver stocks that amazing silver prospects and could triple in the coming months as silver gallops toward $30 an ounce in the Fall ... we'll most likely send out an alert next week, with our top tiny, shiny picks!   We've listened to your suggestions.  And for the first time ever, we're considering a monthly or bi-monthly High Roller subscription, so that more subscribers can get a taste of these tiny rockets -- and with a gold and silver mania right before us, it's great timing! Update:  The S&P again broke under 1320 and pressured down gold stocks - and triggered some gold traders to sell their physical metals.  Clearly, there is still somewhat of a tie to the broad markets, even though metals have by far outperformed the major indices.  It looks like peekaboo for gold stocks while the S&P decides which side of 1320 it will remain on. After what I hope will be an extremely strong finish to this week, Alpha I indicates Gold is likely to see some good-sized dips (or if you prefer, 'corrections' after some big moves!) sometime early next week, possibly Monday, but surely by Tues or Wednesday before a very strong return Thursday or Friday of next week - so I'll probably wait to make our next round of recommendations, many of them silver-coated ... during the 'throes of panic!' =)  I have three independent confirmations of this dip, so I'll be surprised if it doesn't materialize ... but stranger things have happened! Mar 5:    Hedgehog Special Ops! sent out our first non-resource play today.  Alpha I and II indicate a sharp spike up in August for this small, growth company! After a tough day yesterday ... The (GOLD) Empire Strikes BACK!   It looks like our original Alpha forecast of the 5th being a good day to BUY was right (see our March 1st blog entry!), as there were many cheap stocks after yesterday's pullback.  It'll also be interesting to see if Alpha II's forecast of a major rise on the 6th (tomorrow!) comes to pass (Feb 26th blog entry!).  In fact, after today's $23 gain, I think we might hit the magic $1000 tomorrow.   One undervalued miner, ramping up production among skyrocketing gold prices is Aurizon Mines (AZK).  Their CEO will be giving an interview on the leading Canadian business channel tomorrow. Also, they'll likely report RECORD EARNINGS on March 17th - a date coinciding with a major gold and silver price spike that we're forecasting! Earlier Today ... A good morning to add shares of our preferred metal stocks on the cheap!  :)  I'm expecting a strong rise at the end of the week. Mar 4:  UPDATED* 12:30 Noon. The S&P 500 is testing major support at 1320 - if it breaks and doesn't bounce back above this point today back it could facilitate a short but possibly sharp pullback in metal shares.  We're also waiting to see when the IMF's gold selling will begin - an event that would create a great buying opportunity.  If we do see a big dip in the next day or two, adding shares might be a good idea - as we're still looking for a continuing rise for gold and silver and metal stocks in the coming weeks.  Keep some power dry and raise some cash! We'll have some new recommendations ... ready for any dips that appear in the next 2 weeks. *Update: The S&P broke through 1320 and the gold drop we were looking for earlier in the week has arrived - on news that South Africa 'may' be bringing on enough power to restart some idled gold mines.  I raised some cash today, as I think the weakness may continue tomorrow, but I also think it will turn around on Thursday and Friday. Mar 3:  Hedgehog Special Ops!  has just recommended our 40-cent, Top-Secret Uranium play! Mar 2:  UPDATE:  Issue #15 has now been sent. Mar 1: METALMANIA IS JUST BEGINNING:  GOT GOLD? (Pity the fool who doesn't!) Metal Mania?  That's right, gold and silver are just starting to surge!  Heavens!  Silver futures just hit $20 an ounce, way ahead of schedule!    It's one big metal party ...                                And those laggards of the last 12-15 months, the metal juniors have just been 'invited' to explode to the upside ... and let's not forget the forgotten, that is, the uranium stocks, which are about to embark on a blistering return!   I'm looking at an explosive 40 cent uranium stock for Hedgehog Special Ops! subscribers, one that could turn out to be an amazing buy both for the next month and the next year ... trading at the bottom of its chart - with a recent high-grade uranium discovery and uranium prices set to soar, once again! In Hedgehog Special Ops! I'll be making my first non-resource stock recommendation this week.  Both Alpha I and II confirm this $2 Canadian 'specialty company' is about to embark on 6 months of rapid growth, peaking in August!  With increasing sales and  market share, it's a low-risk way to play with $1-$2 upside. In Hedgehog High Roller (HHHR), we'll be recommending some fiery gold and silver microcaps that should power ahead in this POWERFUL METAL BULL! One of my Alpha Indicators suggests a good entry might be made around March 4th or 5th (though it shouldn't matter too much when you buy, as gold and silver are going much higher), so we'll likely be leaving any weakness behind by the end of the week.   In this week's HHT Newsletter, I'll be including our forecasted dates for gold rising and falling for March and some excellent new gold and silver recommendations. Feb 29:  Expect next week to be volatile - meaning 'big moves' according to my Alpha Signals.  If gold is down a lot in Monday's pre-market,there's a good chance we'll see a strong down day for gold and metals when the market opens.  But if gold builds on this week's gains in the premarket, then gold stocks may take a run at 500 on the HUI and gold may run to $1000 an ounce.  That said, IMF gold sales could arrive this week and drop the price of gold temporarily.  A further tumble in the Dow tumble could also accelerate any gold and gold stock weakness, as gold stocks still appear to have some connection to the broad markets (they sunk, though slightly, as the broad markets sold off).  But if the Dow recovers from today's drubbing, that could turn gold stocks upward.  But I do expect to see a correction at some point this week (my original thought was that it would occur early in the week - we'll have to wait and see), one that will provide a great opportunity to load up on gold and silver stocks, especially the juniors.   Feb 28:  I think gold and gold stocks are likely to rally to the end of tomorrow - will gold gold finally rise to hit $1000 and silver $20? If you're not fully deployed in metal stocks, don't panic!   I think we're going to rally until the end of the week, and see a pause/pullback next week - though, any pullback is going to set up a great buying opportunity for the third week in March.  Continue to hold the positions you have, no doubt, they've done very well!  We'll be issuing some recommendations on some great metal stocks that should prosper through April and perhaps, beyond - most likely, on Monday night.   I'm not sure if we'll see a correction this week. Follow-through looks good, so far. Monday looks like a likely day for a pause, though.  Resistance levels to watch on the HUI are 490 and 500 - if we stall below either point we could see a dip. Feb 26:  Secret Silver Update! The company profiled in our original Secret Silver report from last year ... is about to break free of its year-long trading range.  Our next three months are bullish and we should see a rise early in March and a big spike in mid-March.  A few years ago, Silver Wheaton bought several million shares of this company at prices 30-40% higher than they are today.  And once their incredibly high-grade silver mine is close to returning to production, we may find that Secret Silver is fully bought out by Silver Wheaton, just as Silver Wheaton recently bought up all future silver production from Augusta Resources.   Updated: Gold shook off yesterday's dip in a big way, hitting $950 per ounce again.   Now, we could see another move forward for a day or so but I think we also may see a metal stock correction late Thursday or Friday, that possibly stretches into Monday or so.  And this very well could happen if there is a big IMF gold sale that temporarily knocks prices down.  But I expect to see metals and metal stocks race ahead by the end of next week!  We'll wait for the dust to settle and put out HHT #15 either Sunday or Monday night with some new recommendations. The culprit for yesterday's drop has been the threat of IMF gold sales. So what!  Zzzzz.  The dip should be over by March 2nd.  The first week in March (around 4th to 6th) will have gold and metal stocks back on track.  But watch for the third week in March for a MAJOR gold and metal stock spike!  Perhaps, we'll see $975 or $1000 an ounce gold.  Fun!   I'm compiling list of small and medium sized metal plays, and a couple of wee energy plays that are ready to take flight - and maybe, if all works out, a company of an entirely unexpectedly 'healthy' variety ... stay tuned.   After my latest forecasts, I think big gold producer AEM (not a recommendation of ours) might underperform in March after its large run-up and recent downgrade (Kinross did the same thing after a big run and downgrade a few months ago).  But even if it does correct, it looks like a very good, solid longer term play.  (That is, if you were thinking of dumping Barrick for a company of a large-ish market cap, or if you are playing options).   Hedgehog Special Ops!  sent out an alert yesterday, closing two positions. Feb 25: Gold reached $957 overnight but ... it looks like our Alpha forecast of an early week gold drop was correct, as gold has pulled back $20 to $936. No worries.  Use any pullbacks this week as a buying opportunity for both metal and metal stocks.   Feb 24:  Late Commentary: I recently wrote that we could see a dip in gold this week - but if gold spikes and holds early this week (once economic news is released through Monday and Tuesday), then I think the dip will come near the end of this week.  Regardless of this, I'm expecting a big spike for metal stocks in early March.   Weekend Commentary!  (Updated) I'm completing a lot of research, looking at a lot of resource companies this weekend (mostly metal stocks) ... and I can say, hold on to your seats! I've uncovered some great metal exploration stocks that are going to explode over the next 6 months!  Late last week, we already saw some price jumps ... that's just the beginning of what we're about to see.   Hedgehog High Roller! our micro-cap trading advisory will soon be profiling 'Big Tiny, Too!', a gold exploration company with 2 exciting joint ventures, including one with Goldcorp.  We're forecasting a major rise in April!  Also ... emerging from this weekend's research is that in about a month, High Roller! also going to be profiling 'West African Gold!' a 10-cent gold explorer with a MASSIVE MULTI-KILOMETRE GOLD STRIKE!  (A buy and hold!)  This is a great time to join High Roller!  Gold prices are streaking higher ... the majors are becoming overpriced (less attractive, priced to perfection and prone to drops!) and small company takeovers will soon ignite the entire exploration sector!   Investors who recently jumped ship will soon regret it ... but then, that's what the markets do. They bring you to the point of desperation/exhaustion and once they've tossed you to the side, they head vertical! Massive Barrick Meltdown! An interesting article by writer Jason Hommel came out this week about Barrick Gold being a big, toxic gold hedger that is going to get clobbered when they have to acknowledge their billions of hedged losses (hedging a chunk of their gold production at $350 per ounce seems dumb, and it seemly really stupid when you are actually a gold company which ought to be bullish on gold!).  The article was right!  As I wrote in the last HHT Issue, Alpha I indicates we're going to see a nasty drop in Barrick sometime after April.  Barrick shares have been pushed up by large investment funds (who need to buy into big cap, high volume gold stocks) and have done well for us - we'll put in a stop-loss that will keep our profits safe.  But DO watch for a massive Barrick meltdown starting in about 6-8 weeks.  Or, you can simply take profits over the next few weeks and ride some of our non-hedged, fast-growing gold producers (or explorers) to victory ... If you have made a few bucks on Barrick (considered toxic, not only financially... ahem!), consider donating a few bucks to an environmental organization or saving a few acres of rainforest.  :^) Here's some Background: Barrick Gold wants to destroy (Barrick uses the word 'remove', ha!) via salt/bulldozers/blasting a perfectly virgin glacier that contains valuable fresh water in the Andes (bordering Chile/Argentina), so they can mine 17.6M oz of gold that sadly, will only serve to cancel the millions of gold ounces they stupidly hedged ... Meanwhile, Barrick assures everyone that no environmental damage (from the removal of the glaciers OR extraction of minerals via cyanide, arsenic and sulfuric acid) will come to two nearby rivers, a fertile river valley and the farmers in the region - and Barrick claims only 5% of the glacier would need to be removed.  Such a vast difference of opinion!  In any event, the project is on hold - but there are some powerful people behind Barrick.  Google 'Pascua Lama Project' for more info, or visit this link to read a past online petition, as well as Barrick's reaction: http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/pascualama.asp Last week, HHT Newsletter sent out an alert closing North American Palladium at about unchanged (which seems like a miracle, after its unexplained drop from $8.60 to $3 ... and back again!).  After I recalibrate my pacemaker, we'll be re-allocating those funds to some high octane gold and silver plays ... Feb 22: Along with gold and silver, Metal stocks both big and small had an excellent week! (Maybe I should go on holiday more often?)  I'm interested to see if we get a gold price dip early next week.  If we do, I'll likely spring some new recommendations in HHT, HSO and HHHR!   I anticipate putting out the next HHT Newsletter next week and also a Hedgehog Special Ops! update as well. I still have a few emails to reply to and orders to process, and I'm hoping by the end of the weekend I'll be all caught up!   FWIW, even if we do get a gold dip early next week, Alpha I and II are anticipating a strong close to the week.  Grab the commodity bull with both hands and hold on tight! Sean David Morton should be back from Peru in a week - I'm sure it's been an amazing trip.  I look forward to being regaled with some amazing tales! Feb 19:  HHT is back after a one week break in sunny Cuba!  Internet service was pretty dreadful in Cayo Coca, so we weren't able to post any updates.  It took several minutes to load a web-page (it felt like dial-up on an old 14.4k modem), and the internet service there didn't allow us to access our blog for some reason.  Our journey ended on a historical note when we learned that the Cuban leader was stepping down this morning.  Many Cubans we talked to were excited about the prospect of change ... New Subscribers, Welcome!  We hadn't expected the Delphi issue to be published while we were away and we're working to get caught up on new subscriptions over the next day or two!   But I'm glad to see gold and silver shot up nicely today - amazingly, just one day off of our Feb 18th forecast, posted over a month ago!  (See Jan 17th entry, below.)  I think we could see another pullback in the next 4-5 days (chiefly, in the 22nd to 24th area), but we should use dips over the next month and a half to build positions for a spike into April.  It is our opinion that Gold and silver are consolidating and building up strength for their next big rise. Feb 11: Note:  HHT #14 has been emailed.  Let us know if you did not receive it (use our email listed above.) After a shaky start, today was a positive day for metals, but I'm still waiting for the HUI/Gold ratio to break up through the 5 to 5.10 level- as that would confirm the next rise upwards for gold stocks. You can pull up a chart here: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24hui%3Agld Also, starting tomorrow - I'll be on holiday for about a week.  I may check in once or twice, if the internet service is up for it. Feb 10:  Scenarios The HUI gold stock index has many hoping it’s made a bottom in the 420-range. If the 420 level doesn’t hold, the next levels of strong support are 400 and 380. A further rise early this week ie Monday would confirm this bottom, and that a bigger move higher is likely to unfold.  If we see gold and metal stocks rise early this week, think we could see a metal stock rally until the 18th or 20th of February, after which we might see another pullback. But ... if instead gold stocks pull back early this week (possibly, due to further weakness in the major indices), I will still look for them to rise near the end of the week and toward the start of next week. We're completing some final forecasts to include in HHT #14.  We'll post here once the issue has been emailed. Feb 9: Action in gold and silver stocks was excellent on Friday!  We may have seen the HUI bottom at 420 and begin another run over the next 7-10 days.  A jump in the price of gold tomorrow would set us on our way.  In addition, I think a lot of the smaller beaten-down metal stocks are going to jump up over the next couple of weeks. Feb 7:  Gold continues to rise.  One short-term bullish observation for gold stocks is that the HUI to Gold Price ratio is currently at levels we saw right before gold stocks rose in mid-December.  In other words, gold stocks are beaten down and are due to rise relative to gold.                             Another bullish factor is that the VIX or fear/greed indicator is in the high 20s.  I'm anticipating we could see the start of a rally tomorrow. Traders may want to cash out after the 18th and wait to enter on a gold dip after Feb 20-24th.  HL looks strong, as are the ETFs we recommended.  The next issue of HHT will be out this weekend. Feb 5:  If gold closes down again tomorrow, then the rebound will be delayed a couple of days and the rise period should begin Friday and continue through the middle of next week.  UPDATED!:  Gold pulled back under $900 ... basically, because everyone and their taxi driver was talking about buying it. Not one, but two gold investment writers I came across mentioned that their mothers, who would never have dreamed of it (oddly enough!), were now thinking of investing in gold - so, gold had become a bit too overbought and 'popular to continue, without a breather.  The 'contrarian' ideally wants to buy when people 'don't' want to own something, giving him or herself a headstart on the next round of buying (rather than buying AFTER something has risen and right before a correction).  I think gold will rise again by early next week.   We hadn't made many new recommendations recently, because of some uncertainty I had about the HUI gold stock index for the start of February.   But metal stocks are very oversold and are likely to rally begin starting in the next couple of days.   If any of your stocks hit a stop-loss (HHT provides stop-losses for many of our positions), simply close the position to raise cash and wait for our next recommendations. This will ensure the strongest-performing stocks remain in our portfolio.  Our next HHT issue will be out within the next couple of days - I want to see how gold and gold stocks react in the next day or so.  Further ahead, I think metal stocks could see a spike around the 15th to 18th of February.  And then a sharp pullback around the 20th and 22nd that traders might want to avoid. On a historical basis looking back over the last 30 years, February is a month when gold often corrects after a strong rise (which we've just seen) - so what we're seeing here is not out of the ordinary. Click below to see the path gold prices have typically followed (though, not always!), at: http://www.321gold.com/charts/seasonal_gold.html   Now is the perfect time to round out your stock portfolio and buy silver and gold or their various ETFs and hold for the long-term.  Sitting with some cash is also not a bad idea.  Both Sean and I agree that a MAJOR metal price spike in gold will arrive by early April and before that occurs, we'll get some terrific entry points on great stocks that have been sold off en masse.  Silver stocks should really rocket at that time!   HHT Newsletter ... Silver Profits: On Their Way!:  In The Hedgehog Trader Newsletter (HHT), we'll be recommending 2 or 3 terrific US-listed silver stocks that Alpha I and II are forecasting to SOAR, based on some of our most promising profit indicators!  And as these markets are often fickle, we'll make sure to take profits when the time comes. 'High Roller' Subscribers:  Speaking of 'April Surges' and 'Metal Urges', Do Not Miss This! I've identified a really exciting ... and tiny microcap stock that Alpha I and Alpha II indicate should rocket in April!   It's partnered up with Goldcorp and another large mineral exploration company on two separate projects -- and best of all, this small explorer is on no one's radar, yet!  This $13 million dollar company is sitting on several extremely valuable properties and is trading at a dirt cheap valuation!  High Roller plans to profile the company by the end of February.  If you're not a High Roller subscriber, join us now!  Last year, we picked a company I nicknamed 'Big Tiny' .... worth a few million in market cap and trading at 15 cents ... and saw it hit $1.76 within a year!  Maybe we'll call this one "Big Tiny, Too!"  For I think history is about to repeat itself ...  Feb 3:  Hedgehog Special Ops! sent out an update. Jan 31:  Hedgehog High Roller! sent out an update.  Actually, we accidentally sent one to HSO members and cancelled the download link.  (In case you clicked on it and were wondering.) HHHR will be sending out a new pick in the next week or so. We'll have our Special Ops! update out this weekend. Jan 30:  Expect a lot of big price swings and volatility over the next few days, as stocks digest the action the Fed takes at 2:15 pm today.  We did see gold drop from $925 to $917 earlier today (referencing our forecast of a drop in our Jan 27th blog entry).   What happens next should be interesting.  Though, it should be said that price dips in the metal should be bought, particularly, real precious metals as well as the ETFs we've recommended in HHT. Especially, as in the bigger picture, I fully expect gold to hit $1,000 by March or April! Jan 27:  A Big Up-Day is brewing for Metal Stocks on Monday!  But note my original forecast, too, of a 'possible' big gold drop around Jan 30th - which also happens to be Fed Decision Day (a further cut may or may not be baked into this rally, and 'no cut' might also have a negative effect).  After what might be a drop around that time, I think we may see gold race back up in the first few days of February, pull back, then rise around the 3rd week of February and then rise strongly to end the month.  Be patient and you can buy gold and silver on the dips!   Jan 23:  Oil prices will soon be headed higher, for a couple of months at least.  The oil ETF, symbol: USO might come in handy. Special Ops! Update:  Our Alberta oil sands play, trading at pennies on the dollar, is a likely takeover target.  And as per our previous forecast, once January is over, shares should rocket higher in February (watch for a late-February gush!) and March.  We may have to wait out some final weakness through the end of January, so wait until February to add shares.   Jan 22, Updated 2 PM: After the Fed cut, the VIX or fear index spiked to levels seen right after the August crash (37.5) and that means we may have hit a bottom today.  Gold is showing that it's the strongest force in the market, shooting way up this morning. HHT Newsletter:  I prefer AZK to GRS and would just as soon redeploy into AZK which has been a stronger and more reliable stock over the last few months.  HL also looks attractive in the mid-8's and we will remove the $8.50 stop we had on it.  Hecla has pulled back, has great fundamentals and should do well in the next few months.  SSRI is also at attractive levels for accumulation.  If you weren't stopped out of FTEK, continue to hold. We still like it for the months ahead. We'll hold the positions we have for now and see how the markets look in February, before making our next recommendations. Jan 21:  Updated 1 PM --   Gold gapped down today, I think because traders had been banking on Ben Bernanke making a half point rate cut before market open - they assumed he would not still be slumbering as the market averages continued to sink.   That said, I still think a cut is likely this week.  At $858, gold retraces 50% of its gains from late-December, something that's not unusual after a monster rise.  If we see a spike on the VIX that reaches into the 30s this week, we'll likely have a temporary bottom on the DOW and major averages. HHT Newsletter:  we were stopped out of our GRS and FTEK positions on Friday, with their prices closing below $7 and $18, respectively.  We will likely look for another entry for FTEK in February.   I spoke with Sean this weekend.  My latest Alpha I forecast at least partially aligns with Sean's forecast of a big DOW decline (if I had to estimate, this drop may occur after mid-Feb into March), but I think we may first see a bounce over the next few weeks that will allow investors to prepare (take short positions, etc).  Investors are expecting shares to drop and usually, we have a rally when fear becomes so extreme. For what it's worth, Alpha I indicates the possibility we may see a rally in the major indices after that next drop occurs, followed by some more drops and then perhaps, a large rally in July or August.  I haven't done a lot of forecasting on the indices, so we'll have to wait and see how things play out.  But I just thought I'd share my outlook. Jan 18:   The Volatility Index (VIX) market sentiment indicator spiked up big-time today to 29, a level last seen just before the market rallied in late November (indicating a high level of fear).  Is there enough fear in the market for at least a short-term bottom?  We're appear to be getting there.  The biggest spike this year came during the massive August market sell-off when it reached 37.5. Click here for a chart on the VIX:  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24vix Gold stocks also saw a big drop today, even though the price of gold only made a slight dip and remains in positive territory.  The streaky HUI Gold stock index has major support at 420 and currently we're at 424.  The HUI has also retraced more than 50% of its rapid late-December and early January gains.  The HUI to Gold Ratio (strength of gold stocks versus strength in the price of gold) is also near the December lows - showing it may be time for gold stocks to outperform the price of gold.  These three factors hint at a bottom. Jan 17:  New Gold Forecast! We're expecting one more dip in gold tomorrow and a big rise on Monday - this may well coincide with a rally in the broad market, which is very oversold.   Following what might be another dip over a day or two, gold should see a big gain around the 25th to 27th. What next?  Gold will likely give those gains up right at the end of January (perhaps, providing the last chance to buy those golden nuggets at sub-$900 an ounce for the next few months). That drop should fall on Jan 30th. The few days surrounding that should provide a great opportunity to buy metal stocks.  If our forecast is correct, gold should then move up around Feb 4th.  And I say great opportunity, because gold should then spike famously to new highs around Feb. 18th!   Following that, we may see a mild pullback by the end of the month.  -- Gold is rallying again - big cap gold and silvers are rising.  If this rally can hold until the end of the day, I think we could see this rally extend through Monday (swing traders may want to cash in).   After that, we may see a moderate drop back in metals for a few days. And then, Alpha I and II seem to both confirm what I think is a powerful rise for metals and metal stocks around the 25th or 28th - right after that mid-week dip.  We are likely to see another mini-dip within a few days after that - possibly, as investors sell on the news of an end of month Fed Cut, after an initial run-up.   Jan 16:  Late Night Entry: We are working to finish some forecasts for our Special Ops! Update by this weekend - and we'll likely include a look ahead to a new recommendation, a small explorer sitting on a massive ton of gold and copper!  We'll post here when the update has been sent. I've mainly focused on the gold markets, but I'll see if I can get a fix on the broader markets for the rest of the year, over the next few weeks.  And I'll let you know whether I can confirm for myself Sean's bearish view on the DOW.  I do think there's a good chance of a relief rally starting at the end of January for the major indices, precious metals and commodity stocks.  Likely catalyst - a Fed 50 point cut. We could even see one made before the end of the month, for particular dramatic effect ie tomorrow or Friday.  The plot thickens. Entry 1:30 PM: On a technical basis, the metals correction of the last day and a bit has been helpful, as the drop is removing the overbought conditions created after that blistering upside run.  It's interesting that some metal stocks are now as low or lower than they were during the first part of the January rise.  The HUI (gold stock index which largely tracks the share price performance of unhedged gold producers like Barrick and Kinross Gold) is streaky.  First, up 100 points in 2 weeks, and then down 40 in 2 days.  At present, the HUI is at 441 and major support is likely at 430 or 420.  Or a downside risk of 4%.  We could see a strong rise near the end of this week, that catches some by surprise - after hitting one of these supports.  I have some projections that the mid-part of next week will show a pullback and that late next week and early the week after should show a strong rise.  With prices now dipping, the next few weeks is a good time to add real gold and silver to your portfolio either for a 2-3 month trade or for long-term accumulation.  It's likely the Fed will soon cut rates (perhaps, before the next meeting - if the major indices continue to fall) and spark a further rally in metals. I just listened to Sean David Morton on Coast To Coast AM and for what it's worth (and it may be worth a lot based on his DOW forecasting successes), he projects the DOW to drop to 9000 (or as low as 7000) this year.  If we start to see something like that occur, people will be desperate to safeguard their retirement dollars - and gold, silver and metal stocks will be beneficiaries, just as they were in the Bear Market that began in 2001-2002.  The fact that the DOW has now taken out the August lows of 12800 does not look healthy (I think a Fed cut might likely only provide a temporary spike, lasting a few weeks to a few months).  With so many economic concerns (housing, interest rates, inflation, dollar dilution, etc) converging at once, and the possibility of a new bear market underway - does it seem like a good year to go to cash in your retirement funds and/or to more heavily weight gold and silver in your portfolio?  Only you can decide that (I'm not a financial planner, just an observer).  And only time will tell if this hypothesis is correct.  In the next issue of Hedgehog Trader, I'll profile some ways to profit from a downturn in the Dow and S&P 500. Jan 15:  Finally ... Gold and Precious Metal stocks have begun to correct after a long, long, long run upwards! This will serve patient investors well.  However, it's not surprising today's pullback is so one-sided.  Investors are prone to selling as if the sky is falling, especially when gold has seen no adversity for a number of weeks.  However, don't lose sight of the fact Gold is still trading near $900 and will in all likelihood still meander above $850 before heading higher and sling-shotting shares along with it.  Gold was bound to dip under $900 and generate some uncertainty that would scare a few latecomers, before embarking on its next rise.  The December gold/silver pullback in gold left many investors scared - and we all know how that turned out.  Great!  Buy when you're scared and sell when investors are euphoric - those are good short-term signals.   What's also helpful is to look beyond the short-term, and gaze upon at the trends - and we see that both gold and silver are headed up and have been, since 2001.  Obvious inflation (energy prices) and an ever-increasing money supply (print, Bernanke, print!) + interest rate cuts (to stave off recession and housing woes) have created a winning formula for precious metals! With metal and energy prices sky-high, some of the best deals (or steals) are now in the exploration sector.  Based on my recent forecasts, we should see a lot of these surge higher as gold and silver shoot up over the next 3-4 months.  Mergers and takeovers are likely to dump fuel on this fire and send investors hurrying into these smaller, leveraged companies.   HHT #13 has been sent out.  If you did not receive a copy or if you wish to have the MS-Word version, please email us.  We included a new recommendation that should start to rise strongly next week. Jan 13:  We're still completing some company forecasts and hope to have our next Hedgehog Trader issue out tomorrow night - we'll post on our blog when the issue has been emailed.   We haven't posted weekly HUI forecasts for a while, because we aren't able to get as precise a fix as we want right now.  Though, based on some of my Alpha II forecasts we think we may see a pullback around the 22nd-24th, and a strong rise around the 28th of January, perhaps to cap this major run. And then a pullback around Feb 1st.  Overall, we recommend accumulating gold and silver, and metal shares on the dips (we may see one early February - as the Fed's talk has prolonged this bull rally) - because my clearest forecast, confirmed by both Alpha I and II for some time now, is that we are going to see a major prime-time gold and silver price spike in April!  For then, we could see gold hit somewhere between $1000 to $1200 and silver between $16 to $20 an ounce!  After that, we're likely to see a pullback in the price of metals and metal stocks, as well.  (The expression 'sell in May and go away' may be apt this year!) We are also completing some forecasts and plan on putting out our next Special Ops! Update out this week. Jan 8:   As Gold continues to rise (it will have its pullbacks) on its present trend, which began in 2001, investors should hold a core position in stocks, ETFs/funds and physical metal.   In addition, some investors may want to trade a portion of their metals portfolio.  But I know some hardcore traders want to trade their entire portfolio in and out of the market, trying to sell right at the peak and buy right at the bottom (which is scarcely possible).  Beyond being mentally tiring, it's very easy to hesitate re-buying a large position one day, only to watch gold shares jump up 10-20%.   Now of course, if that's happened to you, there will be opportunities to jump back in.  Based on some of my forecasts, I think late January and early February may be just such a buying opportunity. Gold and silver's trend is up, and while there may be weeks and even several months at a time when we endure corrections, this major rise should continue on for the next 10-15 years. Buy good companies on dips and hold on. HHT Newsletter:   Silver Wheaton and Eagle Plains, two companies I like long-term, recently hit their sell stops.  Our next HHT issue will be out this weekend. NovaGold (NG) has rocketed up nearly 100% from its December lows.    Our Dec 9th blog entry said this:  "One new forecast I'm happy to publish here is that Novagold Resources (NG) which we originally forecast would drop (and did, by about 50%), now should perform much better from January to April." Hedgehog High Roller:  Sent out an update. Jan 7:  Another huge gold spike brings us closer to $900 gold! HHT Newsletter sent out a new metal recommendation this afternoon. (Also, if you've recently changed email addresses, please let us know.  Some emails are bouncing.) Hedgehog Special Ops!:  Our China gold play is breaking out strongly!  Our oil sands play looks to be making a January bottom as forecast - once we have completed our forecast for the next few months we'll send out an update.  This year, more liberal reporting standards are expected to allow oil sands companies to be more open about their estimates, and likely, increase valuations.  This sector has been beaten down, but with oil at $100 per barrel and Chinese companies on the prowl - that will soon change. Yesterday, I mentioned that if the DOW and S&P head into a bear market, and if so, it could possibly occur later this year, you might want to protect your portfolios.  Gold and silver did very well during the last bear market.  And there are other hedging options, such as short and even ultra-short ETFs. Jan 6: For a nice change, metal stocks are heading up while the rest of the stock market is tanking (an ominous start to 2008).  This should really get people questioning whether they want a lot of non-commodity exposure in their retirement accounts.   If we see a recession (where consumers aren't consuming) or an economic blow-up of some other type, how much of the stock market (not including metals) is going to hold up?  In 2000, we saw a major bust - though, during the market meltdown, that's precisely when gold and silver started on their way to +200% gains. I'm not sure if it's a good idea to invest money in index funds that invest in all kinds of things that could suffer if the economy lets free a large sneeze.   Right now, I'd want to own solid stuff:  Exposure to metal stocks and physical metals (given that the dollar finds itself stuck on one heck of a downhill ski slope) and energy (which we all need and pay for, anyway).  And cash - either earning interest or in a foreign currency (ie Canadian), at Everbank.com, for instance.   The DOW has had a nice little jaunt from 10000 to 14000 this last year, before slipping back to 12500   Should investors consider moving some of those gains out of the market into cash?   It's something to think about in the months ahead. Jan 1st:  A New Year Dawns, Gold Races Higher! We'd hoped for a one or two day reprieve before the major gold and gold stock rise (Gold's BIG U-Turn referred to on our Dec 28 entry), but it was not to be.  That's one of the difficulties of trying to forecast over just a few days' time.  In the meantime, however, continue to hold your current positions. There will be entry points for new money.  The end of January and early February are likely to provide opportune entry points.  And possibly, in about 10 days, as well. We may even turn up some bargains at current prices. Meanwhile, the broad market is selling off.  This is one reason you want to own metals. They are an excellent hedge against the DOW and S&P, just as we saw in 2001.   Dec 31:  Updated: Happy New Year!  HedgehogTrader.com wishes you all good health, happiness, and prosperity in 2008!   And the strength to overcome any challenges in your life.     Remember, you are your own hero!  To quote Star Trek captain Jean-Luc Picard: "Make It SO, in 2008!" Hedgehog High Roller!  Our microcap trading advisory, Hedgehog High Roller (HHHR), has sent out a new gold recommendation this morning.  Hedgehog Trader Newsletter:  After completing some Alpha Research this weekend, I have my eyes on some new metal recommendations that should do well in the months ahead.  Hedgehog Special Ops!:  We'll be sending out an HSO update within the week.  Though, our 50 cent gold miner, exploring the riches of The North West Territories, shot up 14% today (more to come there!) and we anticipate our $2 silver stock will be jumping in the next couple of weeks ... and our tiny 50 cent copper-gold company aka The Copper Crusher is on the verge of busting out after its first gold production is announced. For techies among us:  We are finally able to run XP once again on our dual core Intel Macs.  We found a program called Parallels (http://www.parallels.com/) that lets you run XP right from your Mac OSX desktop.  It's incredibly simple to set up and run.  And you can run OSX and XP side by side, giving users the best of both worlds.   Dec 28:  Gold spiked up to $338 and gold stocks rose at the end of the week as we were looking for.  (Unfortunately, it comes on the heels of the assassination of a politician seeking democracy in Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto.  A sad note on which to end 2007.) Updated forecasts on gold and gold stocks (HUI) - (for those who care about week to week fluctuations).  Next week we are likely to see a big pullback in metal stocks by mid-to-late Monday (may see a rise early on), that continues through Thursday.  Friday, if Alpha I is correct should show a big rise through most of the day and a big drop to end the day and week.  The price of gold should also pull back next week, then do a BIG U-turn and rise by mid-to-late next week.   The second week in January - Alpha I indicates we should see more loss for the price of gold until a very big gain near the end of the week, according to Alpha I.  And I believe metal stocks will follow the same path that week, too. In my virtual Hedgehog Fund, I've taken profits in SLW, KGC today and sold off UXG at a loss. I will look to add HL and GRS on weakness in the next week or so.  And likely a few others. Dec 26:  HHT #12 was sent out.  If you missed it or would like an MS-Word version let us know. Dec 25:  Happy Holidays, One and All!   HHT #12 is just about complete.   And should be out by tomorrow night.  We apologize for the delay.  Our research data and files were temporarily made inaccessible after